Phase 1 — Can our AI beat the market? Collecting evidence.
| Market | Mkt Yes | AI Yes | Gap | AI Side | Edge | Bet? | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 m... | 25% | 73% | +48.0% | Yes | 35 | DISAGREE | — |
| Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) finish with... | 0% | 8% | +7.4% | No | 45 | skip | — |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any ... | 5% | 8% | +2.5% | No | 47 | skip | — |
| Will Trump talk to Maria Corina Machado in April? | 31% | 50% | +19.5% | none | 20 | skip | — |
| Dogecoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET | 50% | 50% | 0.0% | none | 29 | skip | Down |
| Will CA Barracas Central vs. CA Sarmiento end in a... | 35% | 57% | +23.0% | none | 24 | skip | — |
| Will Leland Olinger II win the 2026 Georgia Govern... | 0% | 8% | +7.3% | No | 43 | skip | — |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the... | 23% | 28% | +5.0% | No | 35 | skip | — |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Isr... | 90% | 93% | +2.5% | Yes | 71 | skip | — |
| Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the ... | 96% | 88% | -8.2% | Yes | 68 | skip | — |
| Will MrBeast hit 477 million subscribers by April ... | 99% | 55% | -43.8% | none | 28 | skip | — |
| Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of April... | 1% | 83% | +82.0% | Yes | 39 | DISAGREE | — |
| Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 4? | 22% | 73% | +50.5% | Yes | 29 | DISAGREE | — |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April ... | 38% | 50% | +12.5% | none | 15 | skip | — |
| Valorant: Team Liquid vs Karmine Corp - Map 2 Winn... | 81% | 50% | -30.5% | none | 21 | skip | Team Liquid |
| Will Leland Olinger II win the 2026 Georgia Govern... | 0% | 8% | +7.3% | No | 43 | skip | — |
| Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | 37% | 50% | +13.0% | none | 25 | skip | — |
| Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5) | 26% | 50% | +24.0% | none | 20 | skip | EC Bahia |
| Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again ... | 28% | 83% | +55.0% | Yes | 39 | DISAGREE | — |
| Will Max Homa win the 2026 Masters tournament? | 1% | 40% | +39.5% | none | 26 | skip | — |
Phase 1 — signal logging only, no real money traded. Comparing AI signals vs Polymarket prices to determine if a tradeable edge exists. Crons: scan at 2pm UTC, resolve at 6pm UTC. Cost: ~$0.15/scan (10 markets × 3 Grok calls).